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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1375

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsJodie EsquibelUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsJodie Esquibel: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jodie Esquibel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Jodie Esquibel

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1483

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'1"

162.56 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Jodie EsquibelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Aguilar · Jul 18

vs Angela Hill · Apr 19

vs Hannah Cifers · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricJodie Esquibel

5.54

Strikes / min

4.10

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

7.37

56%

Strike defense

52%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.75

74%

Takedown defense

83%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap-3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczJodie Esquibel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Jodie Esquibel(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +108.2|Blue -108.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -45.9|Blue +45.9

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetJodie Esquibel

By target zone

33% acc · 75%

Head

32% acc · 57%

64% acc · 22%

Body

35% acc · 26%

80% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

32% acc · 75%

Distance

34% acc · 88%

79% acc · 21%

Clinch

80% acc · 6%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Jodie Esquibel rounds

Round 1Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns1

Control0:09

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:01

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 333

Sig Strikes

65 / 175

37.7%

Sig Str %

38%

142 / 348

Total Strikes

66 / 176

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jodie Esquibel	24 / 76	24 / 76	0 / 0
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	29 / 106	29 / 106	0 / 0
2	Jodie Esquibel	19 / 41	20 / 42	0 / 0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	51 / 107	64 / 120	1 / 2
3	Jodie Esquibel	22 / 58	22 / 58	0 / 1
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	47 / 120	49 / 122	0 / 0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Jodie Esquibel

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4