← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Penne won · SUB R1

Elo1483

Elo1492

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsJessica PenneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Penne won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:32

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Jessica Penne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Jessica Penne

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1483

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Jessica PenneL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danielle Taylor · Apr 17

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21

vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22

SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23

vs Elise Reed · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricJessica Penne

5.54

Strikes / min

2.63

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

5.05

56%

Strike defense

45%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

1.29

74%

Takedown defense

36%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap-2.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczJessica Penne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Jessica Penne(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.3|Blue +8.3

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +420.0|Blue -420.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetJessica Penne

By target zone

43% acc · 38%

Head

56% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 63%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 50%

Distance

40% acc · 33%

Clinch

80% acc · 50%

Ground

89% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Jessica Penne rounds

Round 1Jessica Penne edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:26

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 12

Sig Strikes

12 / 19

66%

Sig Str %

63%

28 / 36

Total Strikes

21 / 30

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jessica Penne	12 / 19	21 / 30	1 / 1	1
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	8 / 12	28 / 36	1 / 1	0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9