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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1426

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsFelice HerrigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, April 7, 2018Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsFelice Herrig: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felice Herrig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Felice Herrig

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1483

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Felice HerrigL3 streak

oldest →

vs Justine Kish · Jun 17

vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricFelice Herrig

5.54

Strikes / min

3.84

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

5.19

56%

Strike defense

48%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

1.08

74%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczFelice Herrig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Felice Herrig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.0|Blue -57.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetFelice Herrig

By target zone

43% acc · 65%

Head

34% acc · 72%

74% acc · 25%

Body

76% acc · 22%

87% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 63%

Distance

35% acc · 72%

81% acc · 34%

Clinch

63% acc · 28%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Felice Herrig rounds

Round 1Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:31

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:39

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

126 / 248

Sig Strikes

86 / 216

50%

Sig Str %

39%

140 / 262

Total Strikes

97 / 228

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

1:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felice Herrig	21 / 59	24 / 63	0 / 3
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	35 / 73	46 / 84	0 / 0
2	Felice Herrig	27 / 69	31 / 73	0 / 2
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	51 / 91	54 / 94	0 / 3
3	Felice Herrig	38 / 88	42 / 92	0 / 0
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	40 / 84	40 / 84	0 / 0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights10