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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1485

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsDiana BelbitaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Saturday, October 7, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsDiana Belbita: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Diana Belbita wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Diana Belbita has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Diana Belbita

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1483

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · Nov 22

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Diana BelbitaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Hannah Goldy · Jul 21

vs Gloria de Paula · Feb 22

vs Maria Oliveira · Jun 23

SUBvs Molly McCann · Feb 24

SUBvs Dione Barbosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricDiana Belbita

5.54

Strikes / min

6.45

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

56%

Strike defense

51%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.86

74%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczDiana Belbita

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Diana Belbita(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetDiana Belbita

By target zone

46% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 58%

72% acc · 30%

Body

66% acc · 33%

83% acc · 4%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

123

50% acc · 87%

Distance

35% acc · 86%

81% acc · 12%

Clinch

72% acc · 13%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Diana Belbita rounds

Round 1Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control1:12

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:46

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes61

Takedowns0

Control0:17

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

141 / 267

Sig Strikes

99 / 261

52.3%

Sig Str %

39%

155 / 283

Total Strikes

108 / 270

1 / 6

TDs

2 / 2

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Diana Belbita	35 / 83	41 / 89	1 / 1
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	39 / 74	41 / 78	1 / 1
2	Diana Belbita	30 / 66	33 / 69	1 / 1
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	41 / 76	52 / 87	0 / 4
3	Diana Belbita	34 / 112	34 / 112	0 / 0
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	61 / 117	62 / 118	0 / 1

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Diana Belbita

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8