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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Denise Gomes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1539

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsDenise GomesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Saturday, November 9, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Denise Gomes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsDenise Gomes: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Denise Gomes wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Denise Gomes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Denise Gomes enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Denise Gomes

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1483

Elo

1539

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'2"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL2 streak

oldest →

vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · Nov 22

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Denise GomesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yazmin Jauregui · Jul 23

vs Angela Hill · Nov 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jun 24

KOvs Elise Reed · May 25

vs Tecia Pennington · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricDenise Gomes

5.54

Strikes / min

4.43

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

56%

Strike defense

51%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

1.45

74%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczDenise Gomes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Denise Gomes(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.1|Blue +55.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetDenise Gomes

By target zone

28% acc · 35%

Head

35% acc · 41%

79% acc · 41%

Body

75% acc · 45%

65% acc · 24%

Leg

67% acc · 14%

By position

44% acc · 85%

Distance

46% acc · 73%

78% acc · 15%

Clinch

71% acc · 27%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Denise Gomes rounds

Round 1Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:15

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:15

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 3Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:32

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 98

Sig Strikes

73 / 144

44.7%

Sig Str %

52%

61 / 115

Total Strikes

91 / 166

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:02

Ctrl Time

5:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Denise Gomes	22 / 36	32 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	7 / 16	11 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Denise Gomes	23 / 45	28 / 52	0 / 3	0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	13 / 31	21 / 39	0 / 1	0
3	Denise Gomes	28 / 63	31 / 68	0 / 0	1
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	26 / 51	29 / 55	0 / 0	0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Denise Gomes

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights8