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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Alexa Grasso won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1512

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsAlexa GrassoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Saturday, June 8, 2019Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsAlexa Grasso: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Alexa Grasso

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1483

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricAlexa Grasso

5.54

Strikes / min

4.11

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

56%

Strike defense

58%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.40

74%

Takedown defense

54%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczAlexa Grasso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -315.0|Blue +315.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetAlexa Grasso

By target zone

30% acc · 61%

Head

32% acc · 62%

82% acc · 30%

Body

72% acc · 22%

62% acc · 9%

Leg

68% acc · 16%

By position

36% acc · 88%

Distance

123

36% acc · 83%

73% acc · 12%

Clinch

83% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Alexa Grasso rounds

Round 1Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:03

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:27

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:03

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 232

Sig Strikes

148 / 369

38.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

92 / 234

Total Strikes

163 / 384

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexa Grasso	42 / 128	46 / 132	0 / 0	0
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	33 / 82	34 / 83	0 / 0	0
2	Alexa Grasso	49 / 117	60 / 128	0 / 0	0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	33 / 87	34 / 88	0 / 0	0
3	Alexa Grasso	57 / 124	57 / 124	0 / 0	1
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	24 / 63	24 / 63	0 / 0	0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14