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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Karol Rosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Karol RosavsVanessa MeloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Karol Rosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarol Rosa: Pressure fightervsVanessa Melo: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(84.3%)

Actual result: Karol Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karol Rosa at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vanessa Melo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa

Red Corner

Vanessa Melo

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1493

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Vanessa Melo

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Sep 19

vs Tracy Cortez · Nov 19

vs Sarah Moras · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricVanessa Melo

5.88

Strikes / min

3.48

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

6.13

49%

Strike defense

59%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

0.00

70%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 3.94 — meaningful gap-2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karol RosaVanessa Melo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karol Rosa(10 fights)Vanessa Melo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetVanessa Melo

By target zone

46% acc · 68%

Head

21% acc · 49%

69% acc · 9%

Body

50% acc · 11%

84% acc · 23%

Leg

82% acc · 40%

By position

49% acc · 73%

Distance

32% acc · 96%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

65% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karol Rosa rounds

even

Vanessa Melo rounds

Round 1Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control1:13

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control3:18

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:19

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 228

Sig Strikes

45 / 135

52%

Sig Str %

29.7%

177 / 289

Total Strikes

78 / 168

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:50

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vanessa Melo	14 / 52	25 / 63	0 / 0
1	Karol Rosa	40 / 79	50 / 92	1 / 1
2	Vanessa Melo	4 / 17	17 / 30	0 / 1
2	Karol Rosa	47 / 79	81 / 113	1 / 1
3	Vanessa Melo	27 / 66	36 / 75	0 / 1
3	Karol Rosa	33 / 70	46 / 84	0 / 2

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Vanessa Melo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4