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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Karol Rosa won · U-DEC R3
Elo1493
Karol Rosa
Elo1491
Pannie Kianzad

Karol RosavsPannie KianzadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karol Rosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarol Rosa: Pressure fightervsPannie Kianzad: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Karol Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa
Red Corner
VS
Pannie Kianzad
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1493
Elo
1491
31
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'7"
170.18 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol Rosa
oldest →
W
vs Yana Santos · Jul 23
L
vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23
L
vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25
W
vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25
L
DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26
latest
Pannie KianzadL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexis Davis · Jun 21
L
vs Raquel Pennington · Sep 21
W
vs Lina Lansberg · Apr 22
L
vs Ketlen Vieira · Jul 23
L
SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Mar 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricPannie Kianzad
5.88
Strikes / min
4.88
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
49%
Strike defense
51%
1.17
TDs / 15 min
0.41
70%
Takedown defense
65%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.29evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1523 vs 1506Strikes6.5 vs 4.9Takedowns1.2 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.10Form-0.3 vs -0.7
Karol RosaPannie Kianzad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Karol Rosa(10 fights)Pannie Kianzad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetPannie Kianzad

By target zone

70
53% acc · 60%
Head
56
41% acc · 61%
8
89% acc · 7%
Body
20
74% acc · 22%
39
74% acc · 33%
Leg
16
94% acc · 17%

By position

100
59% acc · 85%
Distance
82
50% acc · 89%
16
70% acc · 14%
Clinch
10
53% acc · 11%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Karol Rosa rounds
0
even
0
Pannie Kianzad rounds
Round 1Karol Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns0
Control0:00
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Karol Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes52
Takedowns0
Control0:24
43Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Karol Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control4:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
117 / 194
Sig Strikes
92 / 182
60%
Sig Str %
47.3%
140 / 223
Total Strikes
138 / 229
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:24
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pannie Kianzad40 / 8040 / 800 / 00
1Karol Rosa42 / 7442 / 740 / 00
2Pannie Kianzad43 / 7844 / 790 / 00
2Karol Rosa52 / 8456 / 880 / 00
3Pannie Kianzad9 / 2454 / 700 / 00
3Karol Rosa23 / 3642 / 611 / 20

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12

Pannie Kianzad

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11