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Women's Featherweight

3 Rounds

Norma Dumont won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1516

Karol RosavsNorma DumontUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Saturday, April 22, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Norma Dumont won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarol Rosa: Pressure fightervsNorma Dumont: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Norma Dumont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karol Rosa at -102 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Norma Dumont has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa

Red Corner

Norma Dumont

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1493

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Norma Dumont

oldest →

vs Chelsea Chandler · Jul 23

vs Germaine de Randamie · Apr 24

vs Irene Aldana · Sep 24

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 25

DECvs Joselyne Edwards · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricNorma Dumont

5.88

Strikes / min

3.85

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

49%

Strike defense

64%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

1.43

70%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29evenly matched on net striking+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karol RosaNorma Dumont

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karol Rosa(10 fights)Norma Dumont(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.4|Blue +23.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetNorma Dumont

By target zone

44% acc · 58%

Head

28% acc · 51%

73% acc · 24%

Body

69% acc · 26%

43% acc · 18%

Leg

80% acc · 23%

By position

38% acc · 61%

Distance

36% acc · 77%

87% acc · 39%

Clinch

73% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karol Rosa rounds

even

Norma Dumont rounds

Round 1Norma Dumont edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Norma Dumont edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:57

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:16

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 68

Sig Strikes

35 / 87

46%

Sig Str %

40%

144 / 194

Total Strikes

63 / 129

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:13

Ctrl Time

4:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Norma Dumont	11 / 26	15 / 31	0 / 0
1	Karol Rosa	8 / 19	25 / 39	0 / 0
2	Norma Dumont	11 / 28	27 / 51	0 / 0
2	Karol Rosa	7 / 18	47 / 67	0 / 1
3	Norma Dumont	13 / 33	21 / 47	1 / 1
3	Karol Rosa	18 / 31	72 / 88	0 / 1

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Norma Dumont

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12