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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Karol Rosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1489

Karol RosavsNora CornolleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Saturday, August 2, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karol Rosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Karol Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karol Rosa at -158 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karol Rosa has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa

Red Corner

Nora Cornolle

Blue Corner

-158

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1493

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol RosaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Yana Santos · Jul 23

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Nora Cornolle

oldest →

vs Joselyne Edwards · Sep 23

KOvs Melissa Mullins · Apr 24

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Sep 24

SUBvs Hailey Cowan · Apr 25

SUBvs Joselyne Edwards · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricNora Cornolle

5.88

Strikes / min

2.73

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.04

49%

Strike defense

56%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

0.22

70%

Takedown defense

47%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29evenly matched on net striking+0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karol RosaNora Cornolle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karol Rosa(10 fights)Nora Cornolle(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.8|Blue -3.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetNora Cornolle

By target zone

53% acc · 76%

Head

45% acc · 56%

75% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 15%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 30%

By position

40% acc · 42%

Distance

47% acc · 63%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

91% acc · 37%

76% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karol Rosa rounds

even

Nora Cornolle rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control2:03

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:53

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control4:29

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 58

Sig Strikes

27 / 47

58.7%

Sig Str %

35.3%

190 / 224

Total Strikes

75 / 98

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nora Cornolle	24 / 37	45 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Karol Rosa	18 / 34	29 / 47	0 / 1	0
2	Nora Cornolle	0 / 3	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Karol Rosa	7 / 11	77 / 84	1 / 1	2
3	Nora Cornolle	3 / 7	24 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Karol Rosa	8 / 13	84 / 93	1 / 1	0

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Nora Cornolle

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6