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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Karol Rosa won · M-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1449

Karol RosavsLina LansbergUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Karol Rosa won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Karol Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karol Rosa at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lina Lansberg enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karol Rosa has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa

Red Corner

Lina Lansberg

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1493

Elo

1449

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Lina LansbergL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tonya Evinger · Jun 19

vs Macy Chiasson · Sep 19

vs Sara McMann · Jan 20

vs Pannie Kianzad · Apr 22

SUBvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricLina Lansberg

5.88

Strikes / min

2.69

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

49%

Strike defense

44%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

0.52

70%

Takedown defense

47%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap-1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karol RosaLina Lansberg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karol Rosa(10 fights)Lina Lansberg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.5|Blue -43.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetLina Lansberg

By target zone

67% acc · 57%

Head

38% acc · 42%

81% acc · 24%

Body

100% acc · 56%

83% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

63% acc · 44%

Distance

43% acc · 50%

75% acc · 28%

Clinch

100% acc · 44%

94% acc · 28%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karol Rosa rounds

even

Lina Lansberg rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:59

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control4:29

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control2:16

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 74

Sig Strikes

36 / 60

73.7%

Sig Str %

56%

160 / 190

Total Strikes

100 / 132

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:44

Ctrl Time

2:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lina Lansberg	7 / 10	22 / 27	0 / 0
1	Karol Rosa	6 / 10	42 / 49	1 / 1
2	Lina Lansberg	4 / 12	28 / 39	0 / 0
2	Karol Rosa	15 / 16	58 / 64	2 / 2
3	Lina Lansberg	25 / 38	50 / 66	0 / 0
3	Karol Rosa	33 / 48	60 / 77	0 / 3

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Lina Lansberg

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11