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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ailin Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1546

Karol RosavsAilin PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Ailin Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarol Rosa: Pressure fightervsAilin Perez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ailin Perez wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Ailin Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ailin Perez at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ailin Perez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Ailin Perez (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa

Red Corner

Ailin Perez

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1493

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Yana Santos · Jul 23

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Ailin PerezW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ashlee Evans-Smith · Jul 23

vs Lucie Pudilova · Nov 23

vs Joselyne Edwards · Jun 24

SUBvs Daria Zhelezniakova · Sep 24

vs Macy Chiasson · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricAilin Perez

5.88

Strikes / min

2.88

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

1.58

49%

Strike defense

56%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

4.90

70%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29evenly matched on net striking+1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karol RosaAilin Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karol Rosa(10 fights)Ailin Perez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.6|Blue +53.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetAilin Perez

By target zone

30% acc · 38%

Head

32% acc · 45%

55% acc · 11%

Body

65% acc · 18%

79% acc · 51%

Leg

85% acc · 37%

By position

47% acc · 92%

Distance

46% acc · 90%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

57% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karol Rosa rounds

even

Ailin Perez rounds

Round 1Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 3Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 112

Sig Strikes

62 / 131

49.7%

Sig Str %

48%

120 / 182

Total Strikes

81 / 155

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

19.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ailin Perez	13 / 23	21 / 33	1 / 4
1	Karol Rosa	18 / 25	48 / 56	0 / 0
2	Ailin Perez	16 / 41	27 / 53	1 / 3
2	Karol Rosa	11 / 33	45 / 68	0 / 0
3	Ailin Perez	33 / 67	33 / 69	0 / 1
3	Karol Rosa	24 / 54	27 / 58	0 / 0

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Ailin Perez

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7