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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Francis Carmont won · SUB R2
Elo1352
Karlos Vemola
Elo1353
Francis Carmont

Karlos VemolavsFrancis CarmontUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Francis Carmont won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:39

Model Prediction: Francis Carmont wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Carmont at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Francis Carmont has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Carmont has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karlos Vemola
Red Corner
VS
Francis Carmont
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1352
Elo
1353
41
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karlos Vemola
oldest →
L
vs Jon Madsen · Jul 10
W
KOvs Seth Petruzelli · Nov 10
L
vs Ronny Markes · Aug 11
W
SUBvs Mike Massenzio · May 12
L
SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jun 13
latest
Francis CarmontL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13
W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13
L
vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14
L
vs CB Dollaway · May 14
L
KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karlos VemolaMetricFrancis Carmont
1.67
Strikes / min
2.22
2.13
Strikes absorbed / min
1.64
37%
Strike defense
59%
1.93
TDs / 15 min
1.79
31%
Takedown defense
73%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1504 vs 1537Strikes14.5 vs 39.5Takedowns1.0 vs 2.5Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.50Form0.3 vs 1.0
Karlos VemolaFrancis Carmont

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Karlos Vemola(6 fights)Francis Carmont(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karlos VemolaTargetFrancis Carmont

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
2
33% acc · 50%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 50%
3
100% acc · 100%
Leg
0

By position

3
60% acc · 100%
Distance
1
50% acc · 25%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 25%
0
0% acc
Ground
2
40% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Karlos Vemola rounds
2
even
0
Francis Carmont rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:43
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:35Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control1:24
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 7
Sig Strikes
4 / 8
42%
Sig Str %
66.5%
9 / 15
Total Strikes
10 / 16
1 / 8
TDs
0 / 1
25%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
2
1
Rev
0
2:07
Ctrl Time
3:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Francis Carmont2 / 68 / 140 / 11
1Karlos Vemola3 / 77 / 121 / 22
2Francis Carmont2 / 22 / 20 / 01
2Karlos Vemola0 / 02 / 30 / 60

Karlos Vemola

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9