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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Karl Williams won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1468

Karl WilliamsvsLukasz BrzeskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karl Williams won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarl Williams: WrestlervsLukasz Brzeski: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Lukasz Brzeski wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Karl Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lukasz Brzeski at +215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karl Williams has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karl Williams

Red Corner

Lukasz Brzeski

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1505

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karl Williams

oldest →

vs Chase Sherman · May 23

vs Justin Tafa · Mar 24

vs Jhonata Diniz · Aug 24

latest

Lukasz BrzeskiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23

vs Valter Walker · Apr 24

KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karl WilliamsMetricLukasz Brzeski

2.68

Strikes / min

4.90

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

55%

Strike defense

54%

4.20

TDs / 15 min

0.41

100%

Takedown defense

35%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karl WilliamsLukasz Brzeski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karl Williams(4 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.2|Blue -36.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karl WilliamsTargetLukasz Brzeski

By target zone

62% acc · 82%

Head

49% acc · 73%

80% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 19%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

65% acc · 58%

Distance

55% acc · 85%

40% acc · 5%

Clinch

80% acc · 15%

74% acc · 37%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karl Williams rounds

even

Lukasz Brzeski rounds

Round 1Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns3

Control2:14

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control3:42

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:17

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 58

Sig Strikes

26 / 46

69.3%

Sig Str %

57.3%

120 / 168

Total Strikes

49 / 72

8 / 13

TDs

0 / 1

57.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:13

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lukasz Brzeski	13 / 23	28 / 39	0 / 1
1	Karl Williams	16 / 24	19 / 27	3 / 5
2	Lukasz Brzeski	7 / 14	11 / 20	0 / 0
2	Karl Williams	12 / 23	36 / 59	4 / 5
3	Lukasz Brzeski	6 / 9	10 / 13	0 / 0
3	Karl Williams	10 / 11	65 / 82	1 / 3

Karl Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Lukasz Brzeski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7