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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Karl Williams won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1495

Karl WilliamsvsJustin TafaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karl Williams won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarl Williams: WrestlervsJustin Tafa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Karl Williams wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Karl Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karl Williams at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Williams has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Karl Williams has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Karl Williams

Red Corner

Justin Tafa

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1505

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karl Williams

oldest →

vs Lukasz Brzeski · Mar 23

vs Chase Sherman · May 23

vs Jhonata Diniz · Aug 24

latest

Justin Tafa

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21

KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23

KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karl WilliamsMetricJustin Tafa

2.68

Strikes / min

4.05

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

5.11

55%

Strike defense

47%

4.20

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

53%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karl WilliamsJustin Tafa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karl Williams(4 fights)Justin Tafa(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.8|Blue -9.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karl WilliamsTargetJustin Tafa

By target zone

55% acc · 65%

Head

42% acc · 71%

100% acc · 18%

Body

86% acc · 29%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

By position

66% acc · 48%

Distance

46% acc · 86%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

64% acc · 45%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karl Williams rounds

even

Justin Tafa rounds

Round 1Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control3:58

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:45

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:48

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 61

Sig Strikes

21 / 43

68.3%

Sig Str %

49%

123 / 176

Total Strikes

27 / 50

7 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Tafa	6 / 12	6 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Karl Williams	12 / 16	35 / 51	4 / 4	0
2	Justin Tafa	9 / 15	14 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Karl Williams	20 / 34	54 / 81	1 / 2	1
3	Justin Tafa	6 / 16	7 / 18	0 / 0	0
3	Karl Williams	8 / 11	34 / 44	2 / 6	0

Karl Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9