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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Karl Williams won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1459

Karl WilliamsvsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Karl Williams won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarl Williams: WrestlervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Karl Williams wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Karl Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karl Williams at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Williams has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karl Williams

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1505

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karl Williams

oldest →

vs Lukasz Brzeski · Mar 23

vs Justin Tafa · Mar 24

vs Jhonata Diniz · Aug 24

latest

Chase Sherman

oldest →

vs Parker Porter · Aug 21

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karl WilliamsMetricChase Sherman

2.68

Strikes / min

6.04

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

55%

Strike defense

52%

4.20

TDs / 15 min

0.09

100%

Takedown defense

74%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karl WilliamsChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karl Williams(4 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.8|Blue -45.8

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karl WilliamsTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

36% acc · 76%

Head

21% acc · 48%

100% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 19%

92% acc · 16%

Leg

95% acc · 33%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

31% acc · 85%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 15%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karl Williams rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:41

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karl Williams edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:23

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:31

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 165

Sig Strikes

54 / 158

42.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

85 / 191

Total Strikes

64 / 170

1 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Sherman	11 / 39	17 / 45	0 / 0
1	Karl Williams	19 / 43	34 / 69	1 / 3
2	Chase Sherman	13 / 56	15 / 58	0 / 0
2	Karl Williams	23 / 63	23 / 63	0 / 2
3	Chase Sherman	30 / 63	32 / 67	0 / 0
3	Karl Williams	28 / 59	28 / 59	0 / 5

Karl Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15