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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Karl Roberson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1484

Wellington Turman editorial illustration

Karl RobersonvsWellington TurmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · Saturday, July 13, 2019Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Karl Roberson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Karl Roberson wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Karl Roberson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karl Roberson at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Wellington Turman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karl Roberson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Karl Roberson

Red Corner

Wellington Turman

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1429

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karl RobersonL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19

SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22

latest

Wellington TurmanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 21

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 22

vs Andre Petroski · Nov 22

vs Randy Brown · Jun 23

SUBvs Jared Gooden · Dec 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karl RobersonMetricWellington Turman

2.57

Strikes / min

3.23

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

57%

Strike defense

45%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

1.55

40%

Takedown defense

42%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karl RobersonWellington Turman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karl Roberson(10 fights)Wellington Turman(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.8|Blue +55.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karl RobersonTargetWellington Turman

By target zone

55% acc · 70%

Head

48% acc · 80%

92% acc · 22%

Body

63% acc · 20%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

0% acc

By position

38% acc · 30%

Distance

30% acc · 32%

100% acc · 16%

Clinch

83% acc · 20%

84% acc · 54%

Ground

67% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karl Roberson rounds

even

Wellington Turman rounds

Round 1Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control3:14

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:54

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Wellington Turman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:40

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 80

Sig Strikes

25 / 51

62.3%

Sig Str %

50.3%

79 / 113

Total Strikes

38 / 67

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

5:48

Ctrl Time

6:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Wellington Turman	9 / 16	11 / 18	1 / 4	1
1	Karl Roberson	23 / 38	41 / 58	0 / 0	0
2	Wellington Turman	8 / 21	12 / 27	2 / 2	0
2	Karl Roberson	17 / 26	25 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Wellington Turman	8 / 14	15 / 22	1 / 1	1
3	Karl Roberson	10 / 16	13 / 19	0 / 0	0

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Wellington Turman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9