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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Marvin Vettori won · SUB R1
Elo1429
Elo1467

Karl RobersonvsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · Saturday, June 13, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:17

Model Prediction: Karl Roberson wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karl Roberson at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Karl Roberson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Marvin Vettori has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karl Roberson
Red Corner
VS
Marvin Vettori
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1429
Elo
1467
35
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karl RobersonL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Wellington Turman · Jul 19
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22
L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22
latest
Marvin VettoriL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23
L
vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25
L
vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karl RobersonMetricMarvin Vettori
2.57
Strikes / min
4.74
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
4.55
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
1.41
40%
Takedown defense
68%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1542 vs 1540Strikes3.2 vs 4.0Takedowns1.1 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.60Form0.5 vs 0.8
Karl RobersonMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Karl Roberson(10 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -38.8|Blue +38.8
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karl RobersonTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

4
25% acc · 100%
Head
45
70% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

4
25% acc · 100%
Distance
2
17% acc · 4%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
43
83% acc · 96%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Karl Roberson rounds
0
even
1
Marvin Vettori rounds
Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:19
45Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 16
Sig Strikes
45 / 64
25%
Sig Str %
70%
4 / 16
Total Strikes
60 / 79
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 3
—
TD %
66%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:19
Ctrl Time
2:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marvin Vettori45 / 6460 / 792 / 32
1Karl Roberson4 / 164 / 160 / 00

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17