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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Karl Roberson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1391

Karl RobersonvsJack MarshmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Karl Roberson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Karl Roberson wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Karl Roberson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karl Roberson at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Karl Roberson threatens submissions; Jack Marshman has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Karl Roberson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Karl Roberson

Red Corner

Jack Marshman

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1429

Elo

1391

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karl RobersonL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19

SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22

latest

Jack MarshmanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Janes · Jul 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Oct 17

vs John Phillips · Mar 19

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19

vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karl RobersonMetricJack Marshman

2.57

Strikes / min

2.74

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

4.19

57%

Strike defense

56%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

0.00

40%

Takedown defense

20%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karl RobersonJack Marshman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karl Roberson(10 fights)Jack Marshman(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.7|Blue -37.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karl RobersonTargetJack Marshman

By target zone

41% acc · 71%

Head

15% acc · 57%

75% acc · 18%

Body

60% acc · 14%

80% acc · 12%

Leg

46% acc · 29%

By position

42% acc · 71%

Distance

20% acc · 90%

71% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

71% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karl Roberson rounds

even

Jack Marshman rounds

Round 1Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:18

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:15

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:33

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 71

Sig Strikes

21 / 98

47.7%

Sig Str %

16.7%

90 / 135

Total Strikes

30 / 108

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jack Marshman	13 / 52	16 / 55	0 / 0
1	Karl Roberson	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 1
2	Jack Marshman	8 / 31	10 / 33	0 / 0
2	Karl Roberson	8 / 20	35 / 51	1 / 1
3	Jack Marshman	0 / 15	4 / 20	0 / 0
3	Karl Roberson	11 / 19	40 / 52	1 / 1

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Jack Marshman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8