Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · SUB

Elo1429

Elo1550

Karl RobersonvsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

SUB

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(77.1%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Roberson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen threatens submissions; Karl Roberson has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Karl Roberson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brendan Allen has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Karl Roberson

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1429

Elo

1550

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karl RobersonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Wellington Turman · Jul 19

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19

SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22

latest

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karl RobersonMetricBrendan Allen

2.57

Strikes / min

3.59

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

57%

Strike defense

47%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

1.56

40%

Takedown defense

56%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karl RobersonBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karl Roberson(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -121.9|Blue +121.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karl RobersonTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

45% acc · 83%

Head

36% acc · 44%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 44%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karl Roberson rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 14

Sig Strikes

9 / 16

42%

Sig Str %

56%

15 / 24

Total Strikes

15 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan Allen	9 / 16	15 / 22	2 / 2	1
1	Karl Roberson	6 / 14	15 / 24	0 / 0	0

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19