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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Karine Silva won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1426

Karine SilvavsPoliana BotelhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, June 4, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karine Silva won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:55

Style matchupKarine Silva: Submission grapplervsPoliana Botelho: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Karine Silva wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Karine Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karine Silva at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karine Silva threatens submissions; Poliana Botelho has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Poliana Botelho has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karine Silva

Red Corner

Poliana Botelho

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1495

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karine SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ariane da Silva · Apr 24

vs Viviane Araujo · Nov 24

vs Dione Barbosa · Aug 25

vs Maycee Barber · Dec 25

DECvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Apr 26

latest

Poliana BotelhoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Syuri Kondo · May 18

SUBvs Cynthia Calvillo · Nov 18

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 19

vs Gillian Robertson · Oct 20

vs Luana Carolina · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karine SilvaMetricPoliana Botelho

2.24

Strikes / min

2.90

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.93

TDs / 15 min

0.85

26%

Takedown defense

76%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karine SilvaPoliana Botelho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karine Silva(8 fights)Poliana Botelho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.1|Blue -69.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +48.4|Blue -48.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karine SilvaTargetPoliana Botelho

By target zone

18% acc · 53%

Head

59% acc · 53%

63% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 32%

27% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

19% acc · 71%

Distance

73% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karine Silva rounds

even

Poliana Botelho rounds

Round 1Karine Silva edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:47

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 68

Sig Strikes

19 / 26

25%

Sig Str %

73%

23 / 75

Total Strikes

19 / 26

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Poliana Botelho	19 / 26	19 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Karine Silva	17 / 68	23 / 75	1 / 1	1

Karine Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Poliana Botelho

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7