Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Karine Silva won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Karine Silva
Elo1493
Maryna Moroz

Karine SilvavsMaryna MorozUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Karine Silva won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupKarine Silva: Submission grapplervsMaryna Moroz: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Karine Silva wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Karine Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Maryna Moroz has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karine Silva
Red Corner
VS
Maryna Moroz
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1495
Elo
1493
32
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'7"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karine SilvaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ariane da Silva · Apr 24
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Nov 24
W
vs Dione Barbosa · Aug 25
L
vs Maycee Barber · Dec 25
L
DECvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Apr 26
latest
Maryna MorozL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sabina Mazo · Mar 19
W
vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Mar 20
W
SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Mar 22
L
vs Jennifer Maia · Nov 22
L
vs Joanne Wood · Mar 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karine SilvaMetricMaryna Moroz
2.24
Strikes / min
4.42
2.74
Strikes absorbed / min
4.89
52%
Strike defense
51%
1.93
TDs / 15 min
0.70
26%
Takedown defense
42%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1540Strikes2.7 vs 4.4Takedowns3.6 vs 0.7Sub Atts2.20 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs -0.3
Karine SilvaMaryna Moroz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Karine Silva(8 fights)Maryna Moroz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.4|Blue -2.4
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Layoff
Red -196.0|Blue +196.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karine SilvaTargetMaryna Moroz

By target zone

15
48% acc · 50%
Head
8
20% acc · 50%
7
78% acc · 23%
Body
7
58% acc · 44%
8
62% acc · 27%
Leg
1
50% acc · 6%

By position

18
45% acc · 60%
Distance
10
21% acc · 63%
11
92% acc · 37%
Clinch
6
75% acc · 38%
1
100% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Karine Silva rounds
0
even
0
Maryna Moroz rounds
Round 1Karine Silva edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns1
Control0:51
Knockdowns1
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:41Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
30 / 53
Sig Strikes
16 / 55
56%
Sig Str %
29%
52 / 76
Total Strikes
25 / 66
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
0:51
Ctrl Time
1:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Maryna Moroz16 / 5525 / 660 / 00
1Karine Silva30 / 5352 / 761 / 11

Karine Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights7

Maryna Moroz

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11