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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Karine Silva won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1523

Karine SilvavsKetlen SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karine Silva won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:45

Style matchupKarine Silva: Submission grapplervsKetlen Souza: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Karine Silva wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Karine Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karine Silva at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karine Silva threatens submissions; Ketlen Souza has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Ketlen Souza has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Karine Silva has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Karine Silva

Red Corner

Ketlen Souza

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1495

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'3"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karine SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ariane da Silva · Apr 24

vs Viviane Araujo · Nov 24

vs Dione Barbosa · Aug 25

vs Maycee Barber · Dec 25

DECvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Apr 26

latest

Ketlen SouzaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yazmin Jauregui · Sep 24

vs Angela Hill · Feb 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Bruna Brasil · Feb 26

KOvs Ariane Carnelossi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karine SilvaMetricKetlen Souza

2.24

Strikes / min

4.01

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

52%

Strike defense

52%

1.93

TDs / 15 min

0.46

26%

Takedown defense

53%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karine SilvaKetlen Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karine Silva(8 fights)Ketlen Souza(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.7|Blue +27.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karine SilvaTargetKetlen Souza

By target zone

17% acc · 33%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 67%

Distance

Clinch

33% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karine Silva rounds

even

Ketlen Souza rounds

Round 1Karine Silva edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:21

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 10

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

30%

Sig Str %

—

4 / 12

Total Strikes

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ketlen Souza	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Karine Silva	3 / 10	4 / 12	1 / 1	1

Karine Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Ketlen Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7