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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rachael Ostovich won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1392

Karine GevorgyanvsRachael OstovichUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rachael Ostovich won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:40

Model Prediction: Karine Gevorgyan wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Rachael Ostovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karine Gevorgyan at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rachael Ostovich enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karine Gevorgyan has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rachael Ostovich has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karine Gevorgyan

Red Corner

Rachael Ostovich

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1491

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karine GevorgyanNo prior UFC fights on record.

Rachael OstovichL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Jul 18

SUBvs Paige VanZant · Jan 19

KOvs Gina Mazany · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karine GevorgyanMetricRachael Ostovich

1.20

Strikes / min

2.54

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

76%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.03

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.60evenly matched on net striking-1.43

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karine Gevorgyan(1 fights)Rachael Ostovich(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.9|Blue -98.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karine GevorgyanTargetRachael Ostovich

By target zone

20% acc · 100%

Head

10% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

67% acc · 67%

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karine Gevorgyan rounds

even

Rachael Ostovich rounds

Round 1Rachael Ostovich edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:22

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 10

Sig Strikes

3 / 13

20%

Sig Str %

23%

2 / 10

Total Strikes

5 / 15

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rachael Ostovich	3 / 13	5 / 15	1 / 1	1
1	Karine Gevorgyan	2 / 10	2 / 10	0 / 2	0

Karine Gevorgyan

Stance—

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights1

Rachael Ostovich

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4