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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Esteban Ribovics won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1501

Kamuela KirkvsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 8, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Esteban Ribovics won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKamuela Kirk: Submission grapplervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Esteban Ribovics wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Esteban Ribovics wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Esteban Ribovics at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Esteban Ribovics has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Esteban Ribovics has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamuela Kirk (52.9%).
Kamuela Kirk has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kamuela Kirk

Red Corner

Esteban Ribovics

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1467

Elo

1501

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamuela Kirk

oldest →

vs Makwan Amirkhani · Jun 21

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Mar 22

latest

Esteban Ribovics

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25

vs Elves Brener · Aug 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamuela KirkMetricEsteban Ribovics

3.22

Strikes / min

7.27

5.87

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

40%

Strike defense

54%

1.50

TDs / 15 min

0.35

47%

Takedown defense

66%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.65Δ 4.09 — meaningful gap+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamuela KirkEsteban Ribovics

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamuela Kirk(3 fights)Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.2|Blue +34.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +357.0|Blue -357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamuela KirkTargetEsteban Ribovics

By target zone

43% acc · 64%

Head

53% acc · 82%

80% acc · 21%

Body

85% acc · 15%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

80% acc · 3%

By position

50% acc · 91%

Distance

53% acc · 80%

83% acc · 9%

Clinch

77% acc · 9%

Ground

76% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamuela Kirk rounds

even

Esteban Ribovics rounds

Round 1Kamuela Kirk edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:37

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

65Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:43

49Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 107

Sig Strikes

115 / 202

67.3%

Sig Str %

54.7%

86 / 147

Total Strikes

135 / 224

3 / 14

TDs

2 / 2

40.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:20

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Esteban Ribovics	1 / 2	3 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Kamuela Kirk	2 / 2	29 / 39	1 / 1	1
2	Esteban Ribovics	65 / 118	71 / 126	1 / 1	0
2	Kamuela Kirk	35 / 67	36 / 68	0 / 4	0
3	Esteban Ribovics	49 / 82	61 / 94	1 / 1	0
3	Kamuela Kirk	19 / 38	21 / 40	2 / 9	0

Kamuela Kirk

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6