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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kamaru Usman won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1489
Kamaru Usman editorial illustration
Elo1378
Sergio Moraes

Kamaru UsmanvsSergio MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:48

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(86.1%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
  • Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman
Red Corner
VS
Sergio Moraes
Blue Corner
-1000
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+650
(13%)
1489
Elo
1378
39
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman
oldest →
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23
W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25
L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26
latest
Sergio MoraesL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18
W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18
L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19
L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19
L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricSergio Moraes
4.16
Strikes / min
2.42
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
55%
Strike defense
59%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
1.20
89%
Takedown defense
75%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.49Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1591 vs 1587Strikes53.0 vs 30.1Takedowns4.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.38Form1.0 vs 1.0
Kamaru UsmanSergio Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Sergio Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +111.5|Blue -111.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetSergio Moraes

By target zone

8
23% acc · 50%
Head
10
43% acc · 77%
4
67% acc · 25%
Body
3
100% acc · 23%
4
57% acc · 25%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

15
33% acc · 94%
Distance
13
48% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 6%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Kamaru Usman rounds
0
even
0
Sergio Moraes rounds
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 48
Sig Strikes
13 / 27
33%
Sig Str %
48%
16 / 48
Total Strikes
13 / 27
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sergio Moraes13 / 2713 / 270 / 00
1Kamaru Usman16 / 4816 / 480 / 00

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13