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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Leon Edwards won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1489

Elo1480

Kamaru UsmanvsLeon EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 4:04

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsLeon Edwards: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kamaru Usman has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Leon Edwards

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1489

Elo

1480

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Nov 21

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricLeon Edwards

4.16

Strikes / min

2.60

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

55%

Strike defense

52%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

1.25

89%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanLeon Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Leon Edwards(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.7|Blue -9.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetLeon Edwards

By target zone

56% acc · 73%

Head

53% acc · 36%

81% acc · 20%

Body

92% acc · 40%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

54% acc · 55%

Distance

68% acc · 76%

68% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

79% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Leon Edwards rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:21

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control1:42

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control3:23

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control2:51

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 5Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:19

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 135

Sig Strikes

55 / 75

65.4%

Sig Str %

73%

189 / 247

Total Strikes

64 / 85

5 / 12

TDs

1 / 5

48.2%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

10:36

Ctrl Time

2:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leon Edwards	13 / 13	17 / 17	1 / 2	1
1	Kamaru Usman	6 / 7	36 / 39	1 / 4	0
2	Leon Edwards	20 / 28	21 / 29	0 / 2	0
2	Kamaru Usman	36 / 65	47 / 76	1 / 1	0
3	Leon Edwards	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
3	Kamaru Usman	10 / 17	38 / 49	2 / 3	0
4	Leon Edwards	6 / 10	9 / 13	0 / 1	0
4	Kamaru Usman	22 / 30	54 / 62	1 / 2	0
5	Kamaru Usman	9 / 16	14 / 21	0 / 2	0
5	Leon Edwards	9 / 14	10 / 16	0 / 0	0

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19