Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
3 Rounds
Khamzat Chimaev won · M-DEC R3
Elo1489
Kamaru Usman editorial illustration
Elo1517
Khamzat Chimaev

Kamaru UsmanvsKhamzat ChimaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsKhamzat Chimaev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(79.6%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman
Red Corner
VS
Khamzat Chimaev
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-380
(79%)
1489
Elo
1517
39
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman
oldest →
W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23
W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25
L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26
latest
Khamzat Chimaev
oldest →
W
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 22
W
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22
W
SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24
W
vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25
L
DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricKhamzat Chimaev
4.16
Strikes / min
4.01
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
55%
Strike defense
52%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
5.32
89%
Takedown defense
87%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.49evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1707 vs 1611Strikes4.4 vs 5.7Takedowns2.8 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.10 vs 2.70Form-0.4 vs 1.1
Kamaru UsmanKhamzat Chimaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -27.5|Blue +27.5
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -189.0|Blue +189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetKhamzat Chimaev

By target zone

27
52% acc · 75%
Head
27
51% acc · 71%
6
60% acc · 17%
Body
3
33% acc · 8%
3
75% acc · 8%
Leg
8
100% acc · 21%

By position

33
52% acc · 92%
Distance
22
42% acc · 58%
1
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 6%
Ground
16
94% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Kamaru Usman rounds
0
even
2
Khamzat Chimaev rounds
Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:35Control
Round 2Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:41Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
36 / 66
Sig Strikes
38 / 70
69.7%
Sig Str %
59.3%
58 / 92
Total Strikes
107 / 143
0 / 1
TDs
4 / 12
0%
TD %
51%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
7:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Khamzat Chimaev16 / 1761 / 662 / 71
1Kamaru Usman3 / 35 / 70 / 00
2Khamzat Chimaev9 / 2012 / 231 / 10
2Kamaru Usman11 / 1812 / 190 / 00
3Khamzat Chimaev13 / 3334 / 541 / 40
3Kamaru Usman22 / 4541 / 660 / 10

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10