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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Kamaru Usman won · KO/TKO

Elo1489

Elo1456

Kamaru UsmanvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

KO/TKO

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(85.4%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kamaru Usman has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1489

Elo

1456

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Jorge MasvidalL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricJorge Masvidal

4.16

Strikes / min

4.05

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

55%

Strike defense

64%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

1.38

89%

Takedown defense

72%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.2|Blue -33.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

47% acc · 71%

Head

39% acc · 42%

71% acc · 24%

Body

75% acc · 10%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 48%

By position

40% acc · 57%

Distance

57% acc · 87%

Clinch

90% acc · 43%

Ground

80% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:39

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 40

Sig Strikes

31 / 52

58%

Sig Str %

67%

32 / 54

Total Strikes

56 / 79

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	23 / 42	48 / 69	0 / 0
1	Kamaru Usman	14 / 30	25 / 44	2 / 2
2	Jorge Masvidal	8 / 10	8 / 10	0 / 0
2	Kamaru Usman	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 0

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22