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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5

Elo1489

Elo1456

Kamaru UsmanvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kamaru Usman has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1489

Elo

1456

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Jorge MasvidalL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricJorge Masvidal

4.16

Strikes / min

4.05

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

55%

Strike defense

64%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

1.38

89%

Takedown defense

72%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.2|Blue -33.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

45% acc · 46%

Head

33% acc · 35%

92% acc · 52%

Body

74% acc · 44%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

82% acc · 21%

By position

49% acc · 45%

Distance

42% acc · 58%

80% acc · 41%

Clinch

79% acc · 41%

81% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:36

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control3:40

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:14

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control3:37

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:31

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 151

Sig Strikes

66 / 125

62.2%

Sig Str %

49%

263 / 341

Total Strikes

88 / 157

5 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

39.6%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

16:38

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	24 / 43	34 / 58	0 / 0
1	Kamaru Usman	18 / 40	25 / 50	1 / 3
2	Jorge Masvidal	20 / 32	21 / 33	0 / 0
2	Kamaru Usman	27 / 32	94 / 107	0 / 3
3	Jorge Masvidal	12 / 19	17 / 24	0 / 0
3	Kamaru Usman	14 / 27	46 / 61	2 / 5
4	Kamaru Usman	23 / 31	75 / 90	1 / 4
4	Jorge Masvidal	6 / 15	9 / 18	0 / 0
5	Jorge Masvidal	4 / 16	7 / 24	0 / 0
5	Kamaru Usman	12 / 21	23 / 33	1 / 1

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22