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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5

Elo1489

Elo1516

Kamaru UsmanvsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at +184 American odds

+$184 profit

$284 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamaru Usman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kamaru Usman has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

+184

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1489

Elo

1516

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru UsmanL4 streak

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Nov 21

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Joaquin Buckley

oldest →

KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricJoaquin Buckley

4.16

Strikes / min

3.62

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

55%

Strike defense

58%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

1.43

89%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.5|Blue +26.5

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +420.0|Blue -420.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

37% acc · 80%

Head

22% acc · 66%

80% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

32% acc · 54%

Distance

28% acc · 93%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

65% acc · 41%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:25

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:08

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:35

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:18

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:31

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 99

Sig Strikes

44 / 148

43.2%

Sig Str %

22.2%

137 / 243

Total Strikes

51 / 156

4 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

56.6%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	0 / 4	1 / 5	0 / 0
1	Kamaru Usman	7 / 11	41 / 61	1 / 1
2	Joaquin Buckley	3 / 17	3 / 17	0 / 0
2	Kamaru Usman	10 / 21	33 / 61	1 / 2
3	Joaquin Buckley	10 / 35	13 / 38	0 / 0
3	Kamaru Usman	8 / 21	33 / 56	1 / 1
4	Joaquin Buckley	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 0
4	Kamaru Usman	6 / 20	20 / 39	1 / 3
5	Kamaru Usman	10 / 26	10 / 26	0 / 6
5	Joaquin Buckley	20 / 58	23 / 62	0 / 0

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17