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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Kamaru Usman won · SUB R2

Elo1489

Elo1356

Kamaru UsmanvsHayder HassanUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:19

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamaru Usman has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
Kamaru Usman has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Hayder Hassan

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1489

Elo

1356

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Hayder Hassan

oldest →

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricHayder Hassan

4.16

Strikes / min

2.11

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

55%

Strike defense

48%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.00

89%

Takedown defense

25%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap-1.05

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Hayder Hassan(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.6|Blue -133.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetHayder Hassan

By target zone

48% acc · 67%

Head

30% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

44% acc · 27%

Distance

13% acc · 33%

100% acc · 27%

Clinch

67% acc · 67%

54% acc · 47%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Hayder Hassan rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns5

Control4:03

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:06

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 26

Sig Strikes

3 / 11

52.5%

Sig Str %

28%

31 / 43

Total Strikes

7 / 15

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hayder Hassan	1 / 6	3 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Kamaru Usman	12 / 19	28 / 36	5 / 6	0
2	Hayder Hassan	2 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Kamaru Usman	3 / 7	3 / 7	1 / 2	1

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Hayder Hassan

Stance—

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2