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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Kamaru Usman won · KO/TKO

Elo1489

Elo1466

Kamaru UsmanvsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Saturday, February 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

KO/TKO

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -278 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Kamaru Usman has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
Kamaru Usman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

-278

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+228

(30%)

1489

Elo

1466

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricGilbert Burns

4.16

Strikes / min

3.16

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

55%

Strike defense

52%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

2.04

89%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.8|Blue -23.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

53% acc · 67%

Head

24% acc · 40%

73% acc · 13%

Body

93% acc · 29%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

74% acc · 31%

By position

54% acc · 65%

Distance

42% acc · 98%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

81% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control1:43

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 136

Sig Strikes

45 / 108

63.3%

Sig Str %

60.3%

93 / 149

Total Strikes

55 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Burns	22 / 56	32 / 71	0 / 1
1	Kamaru Usman	31 / 53	40 / 65	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	21 / 50	21 / 51	0 / 2
2	Kamaru Usman	39 / 65	40 / 66	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0
3	Kamaru Usman	13 / 18	13 / 18	0 / 0

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24