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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1381

Kamaru UsmanvsEmil MeekUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Sunday, January 14, 2018St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamaru Usman has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kamaru Usman has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Emil Meek

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+525

(16%)

1489

Elo

1381

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Emil MeekL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 16

vs Bartosz Fabinski · Jul 18

vs Jake Matthews · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricEmil Meek

4.16

Strikes / min

2.52

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

55%

Strike defense

38%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.25

89%

Takedown defense

47%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanEmil Meek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Emil Meek(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +108.4|Blue -108.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -280.0|Blue +280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetEmil Meek

By target zone

66% acc · 58%

Head

37% acc · 67%

90% acc · 18%

Body

70% acc · 23%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

53% acc · 16%

Distance

35% acc · 57%

100% acc · 16%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

79% acc · 68%

Ground

60% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Emil Meek rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control4:52

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control3:57

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns4

Control4:07

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 66

Sig Strikes

30 / 67

78%

Sig Str %

41.3%

112 / 132

Total Strikes

86 / 131

8 / 19

TDs

0 / 0

41.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:56

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Emil Meek	3 / 10	25 / 34	0 / 0	1
1	Kamaru Usman	13 / 14	27 / 29	3 / 9	0
2	Emil Meek	13 / 31	23 / 44	0 / 0	1
2	Kamaru Usman	18 / 27	49 / 58	1 / 4	0
3	Emil Meek	14 / 26	38 / 53	0 / 0	0
3	Kamaru Usman	19 / 25	36 / 45	4 / 6	0

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Emil Meek

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4