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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5

Elo1489

Elo1491

Kamaru UsmanvsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsColby Covington: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamaru Usman has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Colby Covington

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1489

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricColby Covington

4.16

Strikes / min

3.81

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

55%

Strike defense

54%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

3.64

89%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetColby Covington

By target zone

33% acc · 65%

Head

33% acc · 74%

82% acc · 33%

Body

70% acc · 21%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

83% acc · 5%

By position

107

39% acc · 87%

Distance

101

37% acc · 94%

86% acc · 5%

Clinch

86% acc · 6%

83% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Colby Covington rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:22

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns2

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:16

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 4Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:23

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

123 / 293

Sig Strikes

107 / 281

41.4%

Sig Str %

36.8%

158 / 336

Total Strikes

119 / 298

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 11

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:16

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Colby Covington	13 / 47	13 / 47	0 / 1
1	Kamaru Usman	17 / 43	22 / 48	1 / 1
2	Colby Covington	19 / 47	19 / 48	0 / 2
2	Kamaru Usman	36 / 71	50 / 86	0 / 0
3	Colby Covington	21 / 56	23 / 59	0 / 4
3	Kamaru Usman	23 / 58	30 / 71	0 / 0
4	Kamaru Usman	23 / 70	24 / 71	0 / 0
4	Colby Covington	33 / 77	38 / 83	0 / 2
5	Colby Covington	21 / 54	26 / 61	0 / 2
5	Kamaru Usman	24 / 51	32 / 60	0 / 0

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17