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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Kamaru Usman won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1489
Kamaru Usman editorial illustration
Elo1491
Colby Covington

Kamaru UsmanvsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 4:10

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsColby Covington: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kamaru Usman has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
  • Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1489
Elo
1491
39
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman
oldest →
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23
W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25
L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26
latest
Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricColby Covington
4.16
Strikes / min
3.81
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
55%
Strike defense
54%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
3.64
89%
Takedown defense
68%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.49evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1677 vs 1662Takedowns4.0 vs 5.7Sub Atts0.19 vs 0.20Form1.1 vs 1.1
Kamaru UsmanColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetColby Covington

By target zone

116
42% acc · 66%
Head
103
30% acc · 72%
53
72% acc · 30%
Body
28
72% acc · 20%
6
86% acc · 3%
Leg
12
80% acc · 8%

By position

156
46% acc · 89%
Distance
143
36% acc · 100%
5
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
14
93% acc · 8%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Kamaru Usman rounds
2
even
1
Colby Covington rounds
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
39Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:00
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns2
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
175 / 360
Sig Strikes
143 / 395
49.4%
Sig Str %
34%
175 / 360
Total Strikes
143 / 395
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Colby Covington39 / 11139 / 1110 / 00
1Kamaru Usman34 / 9134 / 910 / 00
2Colby Covington41 / 9741 / 970 / 00
2Kamaru Usman40 / 7940 / 790 / 00
3Colby Covington8 / 518 / 510 / 00
3Kamaru Usman29 / 5029 / 500 / 00
4Kamaru Usman35 / 6835 / 680 / 00
4Colby Covington36 / 7636 / 760 / 00
5Colby Covington19 / 6019 / 600 / 00
5Kamaru Usman37 / 7237 / 720 / 00

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17