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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1391

Kamaru UsmanvsAlexander YakovlevUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(85.3%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamaru Usman has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Alexander Yakovlev

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1489

Elo

1391

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Alexander YakovlevL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs George Sullivan · Jan 16

SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16

SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricAlexander Yakovlev

4.16

Strikes / min

1.74

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

55%

Strike defense

58%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

1.66

89%

Takedown defense

72%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanAlexander Yakovlev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.9|Blue -98.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetAlexander Yakovlev

By target zone

57% acc · 63%

Head

20% acc · 13%

67% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 75%

83% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

0% acc

Distance

45% acc · 63%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 38%

91% acc · 98%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Alexander Yakovlev rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:45

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control3:41

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control4:36

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 67

Sig Strikes

8 / 15

64.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

155 / 195

Total Strikes

11 / 18

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

73.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Yakovlev	1 / 3	4 / 6	0 / 0
1	Kamaru Usman	10 / 13	39 / 47	1 / 5
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 0
2	Kamaru Usman	17 / 33	56 / 76	1 / 1
3	Alexander Yakovlev	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0
3	Kamaru Usman	14 / 21	60 / 72	3 / 3

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Alexander Yakovlev

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9