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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB R3

Elo1351

Elo1493

Kamal ShalorusvsKhabib NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:08

Style matchupKamal Shalorus: WrestlervsKhabib Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kamal Shalorus wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamal Shalorus at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kamal Shalorus

Red Corner

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1351

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamal ShalorusL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jim Miller · Mar 11

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 12

latest

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamal ShalorusMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov

3.06

Strikes / min

4.10

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

70%

Strike defense

65%

2.07

TDs / 15 min

5.32

80%

Takedown defense

84%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap+2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamal ShalorusKhabib Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamal Shalorus(3 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.6|Blue +141.6

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamal ShalorusTargetKhabib Nurmagomedov

By target zone

24% acc · 69%

Head

44% acc · 91%

40% acc · 15%

Body

75% acc · 9%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

0% acc

By position

28% acc · 85%

Distance

32% acc · 43%

50% acc · 15%

Clinch

75% acc · 9%

Ground

65% acc · 49%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamal Shalorus rounds

even

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:51Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:09Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 44

Sig Strikes

35 / 77

36.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

18 / 51

Total Strikes

59 / 106

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 9

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

5:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	24 / 54	31 / 63	0 / 4	0
1	Kamal Shalorus	9 / 34	9 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	8 / 15	16 / 25	2 / 3	0
2	Kamal Shalorus	2 / 4	6 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	3 / 8	12 / 18	1 / 2	1
3	Kamal Shalorus	2 / 6	3 / 9	0 / 2	0

Kamal Shalorus

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13