Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R1
Elo1368
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration

Kajan JohnsonvsIslam MakhachevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, July 28, 2018Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:43

Model Prediction: Kajan Johnson wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kajan Johnson at +450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Kajan Johnson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Islam Makhachev has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Kajan Johnson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kajan Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+450
(18%)
Vegas Odds
-600
(86%)
1368
Elo
1544
42
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kajan Johnson
oldest →
W
DECvs Zhang Lipeng · May 15
W
vs Naoyuki Kotani · Sep 15
W
KOvs Adriano Martins · Sep 17
W
vs Stevie Ray · Mar 18
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 18
latest
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kajan JohnsonMetricIslam Makhachev
2.47
Strikes / min
2.45
1.59
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
64%
Strike defense
61%
1.54
TDs / 15 min
3.10
62%
Takedown defense
91%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.88evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1556 vs 1563Strikes33.0 vs 18.8Takedowns1.8 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs 0.9
Kajan JohnsonIslam Makhachev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Kajan Johnson(7 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -176.1|Blue +176.1
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kajan JohnsonTargetIslam Makhachev

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
6
35% acc · 86%
3
60% acc · 43%
Body
1
100% acc · 14%
4
67% acc · 57%
Leg
0

By position

7
41% acc · 100%
Distance
1
11% acc · 14%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
6
67% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Kajan Johnson rounds
0
even
1
Islam Makhachev rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 17
Sig Strikes
7 / 18
41%
Sig Str %
38%
7 / 17
Total Strikes
14 / 26
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:28

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Islam Makhachev7 / 1814 / 261 / 11
1Kajan Johnson7 / 177 / 170 / 00

Kajan Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights7

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18