Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Yan Xiaonan won · Decision R3

Elo1363

Elo1500

Kailin CurranvsYan XiaonanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · Saturday, November 25, 2017Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Yan Xiaonan won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKailin Curran: WrestlervsYan Xiaonan: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yan Xiaonan wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Yan Xiaonan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Xiaonan at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kailin Curran enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kailin Curran

Red Corner

Yan Xiaonan

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1363

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kailin CurranL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Chambers · May 15

SUBvs Emily Peters Kagan · Dec 15

SUBvs Felice Herrig · Jul 16

vs Jamie Moyle · Dec 16

DECvs Alexandra Albu · Jul 17

latest

Yan Xiaonan

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22

KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23

vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24

vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24

vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kailin CurranMetricYan Xiaonan

3.89

Strikes / min

4.69

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

53%

Strike defense

60%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.84

61%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kailin CurranYan Xiaonan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kailin Curran(7 fights)Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.8|Blue +136.8

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kailin CurranTargetYan Xiaonan

By target zone

30% acc · 63%

Head

42% acc · 83%

75% acc · 23%

Body

71% acc · 5%

88% acc · 13%

Leg

85% acc · 11%

By position

32% acc · 65%

Distance

42% acc · 79%

76% acc · 25%

Clinch

75% acc · 19%

45% acc · 10%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kailin Curran rounds

even

Yan Xiaonan rounds

Round 1Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:44

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:13

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:46

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 134

Sig Strikes

96 / 211

38.7%

Sig Str %

45%

139 / 233

Total Strikes

106 / 222

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:43

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yan Xiaonan	32 / 70	38 / 76	0 / 0
1	Kailin Curran	16 / 36	45 / 70	0 / 3
2	Yan Xiaonan	29 / 65	30 / 66	0 / 0
2	Kailin Curran	15 / 42	42 / 73	1 / 1
3	Yan Xiaonan	35 / 76	38 / 80	0 / 0
3	Kailin Curran	21 / 56	52 / 90	1 / 2

Kailin Curran

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights13