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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kara-France won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1498

Kai Kara-FrancevsSteve ErcegUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Kai Kara-France won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:04

Style matchupKai Kara-France: Well-roundedvsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Erceg at -298 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kara-France enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kai Kara-France has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kara-France

Red Corner

Steve Erceg

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-298

(75%)

1495

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai Kara-FranceL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 21

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Steve Erceg

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25

vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai Kara-FranceMetricSteve Erceg

4.46

Strikes / min

4.64

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

64%

Strike defense

55%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.13

83%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kai Kara-FranceSteve Erceg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Steve Erceg(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +336.0|Blue -336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai Kara-FranceTargetSteve Erceg

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

31% acc · 89%

38% acc · 28%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

34% acc · 83%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

Clinch

43% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Kara-France rounds

even

Steve Erceg rounds

Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns2

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 51

Sig Strikes

9 / 29

35%

Sig Str %

31%

18 / 51

Total Strikes

9 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steve Erceg	9 / 29	9 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Kai Kara-France	18 / 51	18 / 51	0 / 0	0

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9