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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kara-France won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1429

Kai Kara-FrancevsRaulian PaivaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Kai Kara-France won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKai Kara-France: Well-roundedvsRaulian Paiva: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kai Kara-France wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kai Kara-France at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kara-France has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kara-France

Red Corner

Raulian Paiva

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1495

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Raulian PaivaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20

DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21

vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai Kara-FranceMetricRaulian Paiva

4.46

Strikes / min

4.14

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.01

64%

Strike defense

48%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.65

83%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kai Kara-FranceRaulian Paiva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.5|Blue -66.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai Kara-FranceTargetRaulian Paiva

By target zone

25% acc · 57%

Head

26% acc · 54%

71% acc · 29%

Body

64% acc · 31%

80% acc · 14%

Leg

91% acc · 15%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 91%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

25% acc · 1%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Kara-France rounds

even

Raulian Paiva rounds

Round 1Raulian Paiva edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Raulian Paiva edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:03

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 3Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control0:18

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 168

Sig Strikes

67 / 184

33.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

60 / 170

Total Strikes

71 / 188

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 4

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

1:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raulian Paiva	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 3	0
1	Kai Kara-France	12 / 39	12 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Raulian Paiva	25 / 68	29 / 72	0 / 1	1
2	Kai Kara-France	21 / 58	23 / 60	0 / 4	0
3	Raulian Paiva	26 / 77	26 / 77	0 / 0	0
3	Kai Kara-France	25 / 71	25 / 71	2 / 3	0

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7