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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kara-France won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1385

Kai Kara-FrancevsMark De La RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 31, 2019Shenzhen, Guangdong, China

Official fight result

Kai Kara-France won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kai Kara-France wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kai Kara-France at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark De La Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mark De La Rosa threatens submissions; Kai Kara-France has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kai Kara-France has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kai Kara-France has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kai Kara-France has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kara-France

Red Corner

Mark De La Rosa

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1495

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Mark De La RosaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Elias Garcia · Jul 18

vs Joby Sanchez · Nov 18

vs Alex Perez · Mar 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Feb 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai Kara-FranceMetricMark De La Rosa

4.46

Strikes / min

3.13

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.00

64%

Strike defense

48%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.54

83%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kai Kara-FranceMark De La Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Mark De La Rosa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +110.5|Blue -110.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai Kara-FranceTargetMark De La Rosa

By target zone

40% acc · 64%

Head

29% acc · 85%

47% acc · 10%

Body

40% acc · 7%

86% acc · 26%

Leg

45% acc · 8%

By position

46% acc · 93%

Distance

30% acc · 97%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

57% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Kara-France rounds

even

Mark De La Rosa rounds

Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:08

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 2Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 193

Sig Strikes

60 / 195

47.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

93 / 195

Total Strikes

63 / 198

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 7

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark De La Rosa	16 / 48	19 / 51	1 / 6
1	Kai Kara-France	22 / 43	23 / 44	1 / 1
2	Mark De La Rosa	24 / 79	24 / 79	0 / 1
2	Kai Kara-France	30 / 69	31 / 70	0 / 0
3	Mark De La Rosa	20 / 68	20 / 68	0 / 0
3	Kai Kara-France	39 / 81	39 / 81	0 / 0

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Mark De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7