Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kara-France won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1487

Kai Kara-FrancevsCody GarbrandtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kai Kara-France won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:21

Style matchupKai Kara-France: Well-roundedvsCody Garbrandt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Kai Kara-France wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kai Kara-France at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kara-France has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kara-France

Red Corner

Cody Garbrandt

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1495

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai Kara-FranceMetricCody Garbrandt

4.46

Strikes / min

2.79

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

64%

Strike defense

58%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.85

83%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kai Kara-FranceCody Garbrandt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai Kara-FranceTargetCody Garbrandt

By target zone

56% acc · 78%

Head

40% acc · 44%

25% acc · 4%

Body

0% acc

80% acc · 17%

Leg

83% acc · 56%

By position

51% acc · 83%

Distance

53% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Kara-France rounds

even

Cody Garbrandt rounds

Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns2

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 41

Sig Strikes

9 / 17

56%

Sig Str %

52%

23 / 41

Total Strikes

9 / 17

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Garbrandt	9 / 17	9 / 17	0 / 1	0
1	Kai Kara-France	23 / 41	23 / 41	0 / 0	0

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18