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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Royval won · SUB

Elo1495

Elo1511

Kai Kara-FrancevsBrandon RoyvalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

SUB

Style matchupKai Kara-France: Well-roundedvsBrandon Royval: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Brandon Royval wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Royval at +188 American odds

+$188 profit

$288 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Royval threatens submissions; Kai Kara-France has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kai Kara-France has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kai Kara-France has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kara-France

Red Corner

Brandon Royval

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1495

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai Kara-FranceMetricBrandon Royval

4.46

Strikes / min

5.54

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

64%

Strike defense

43%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.65

83%

Takedown defense

45%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kai Kara-FranceBrandon Royval

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Brandon Royval(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.1|Blue +15.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai Kara-FranceTargetBrandon Royval

By target zone

43% acc · 55%

Head

48% acc · 69%

100% acc · 5%

Body

78% acc · 18%

100% acc · 41%

Leg

83% acc · 13%

By position

60% acc · 95%

Distance

53% acc · 87%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Kara-France rounds

even

Brandon Royval rounds

Round 1Brandon Royval edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:24

Knockdowns1

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:07

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 38

Sig Strikes

39 / 71

68%

Sig Str %

54%

22 / 39

Total Strikes

51 / 85

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Royval	31 / 56	43 / 70	0 / 0	0
1	Kai Kara-France	13 / 28	13 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Brandon Royval	8 / 15	8 / 15	0 / 0	1
2	Kai Kara-France	9 / 10	9 / 10	0 / 1	0

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13