Flyweight

5 Rounds

Amir Albazi won · S-DEC R5

Elo1495

Elo1494

Kai Kara-FrancevsAmir AlbaziUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amir Albazi won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Amir Albazi wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Amir Albazi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amir Albazi at -116 American odds

+$86 profit

$186 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amir Albazi threatens submissions; Kai Kara-France has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kai Kara-France has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kara-France

Red Corner

Amir Albazi

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1495

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 21

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Amir AlbaziL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov · Jan 21

SUBvs Francisco Figueiredo · Aug 22

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Dec 22

vs Brandon Moreno · Nov 24

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai Kara-FranceMetricAmir Albazi

4.46

Strikes / min

2.47

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

64%

Strike defense

59%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.18

83%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 2.63 — meaningful gap-1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kai Kara-FranceAmir Albazi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Amir Albazi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai Kara-FranceTargetAmir Albazi

By target zone

25% acc · 58%

Head

25% acc · 72%

67% acc · 20%

Body

46% acc · 14%

76% acc · 22%

Leg

86% acc · 14%

By position

34% acc · 91%

Distance

29% acc · 91%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

20% acc · 2%

57% acc · 8%

Ground

60% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Kara-France rounds

even

Amir Albazi rounds

Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:47

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:36Control

Round 4Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:11

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 5Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 283

Sig Strikes

43 / 145

36.2%

Sig Str %

28.6%

133 / 323

Total Strikes

64 / 173

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 9

100%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

6:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amir Albazi	6 / 23	12 / 31	0 / 1	0
1	Kai Kara-France	13 / 40	20 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Amir Albazi	11 / 37	12 / 38	0 / 1	0
2	Kai Kara-France	16 / 55	17 / 56	0 / 0	0
3	Amir Albazi	3 / 9	15 / 26	1 / 2	1
3	Kai Kara-France	9 / 19	30 / 44	1 / 1	0
4	Kai Kara-France	27 / 65	29 / 67	1 / 1	0
4	Amir Albazi	5 / 29	7 / 31	0 / 2	0
5	Amir Albazi	18 / 47	18 / 47	0 / 3	0
5	Kai Kara-France	34 / 104	37 / 109	0 / 0	0

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Amir Albazi

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7