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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kamaka III won · Decision R3

Elo1490

Elo1481

Kai Kamaka IIIvsDakota HopeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Kai Kamaka III won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Kai Kamaka III

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Kai Kamaka III at -163 American odds · hypothetical only

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Style matchupKai Kamaka III: Pressure fightervsDakota Hope: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Kai Kamaka III wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Kai Kamaka III wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kamaka III has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dakota Hope has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kai Kamaka III

Red Corner

Dakota Hope

Blue Corner

-163

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1490

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

N/A

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai Kamaka III

oldest →

KOvs Luke Riley · Jul 26

latest

Dakota HopeNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai Kamaka IIIMetricDakota Hope

5.40

Strikes / min

7.07

5.67

Strikes absorbed / min

7.00

56%

Strike defense

33%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

1.00

55%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kai Kamaka IIIDakota Hope

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Kamaka III(2 fights)Dakota Hope(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.5|Blue -9.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai Kamaka IIITargetDakota Hope

By target zone

47% acc · 42%

Head

31% acc · 58%

92% acc · 45%

Body

80% acc · 41%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

33% acc · 1%

By position

63% acc · 79%

Distance

31% acc · 58%

79% acc · 21%

Clinch

77% acc · 42%

Ground

25% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Kamaka III rounds

even

Dakota Hope rounds

Round 1Dakota Hope edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Kai Kamaka III edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:10

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Kai Kamaka III edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:08

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 159

Sig Strikes

106 / 258

65%

Sig Str %

40.7%

144 / 199

Total Strikes

155 / 312

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dakota Hope	42 / 89	66 / 117	0 / 0
1	Kai Kamaka III	21 / 36	31 / 46	0 / 0
2	Dakota Hope	32 / 83	44 / 95	0 / 0
2	Kai Kamaka III	41 / 54	59 / 72	0 / 1
3	Dakota Hope	32 / 86	45 / 100	1 / 3
3	Kai Kamaka III	43 / 69	54 / 81	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Kai Kamaka III

Odds

-163

Market-implied probability

Kai Kamaka III 59%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Kai Kamaka III (model pick · research)$161

Dakota Hope$230

59% market-implied · model 91% (research) · vsklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_122511

🔒 Pick locked May 14, 2026, 12:25 PM UTC · never rewritten

Kai Kamaka III

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2

Dakota Hope

Stance—

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights1