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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Kai Asakura won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1504

Elo1452

Kai AsakuravsCameron SmothermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 30, 2026Macau, China

Official fight result

Kai Asakura won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:50

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Cameron Smotherman

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Cameron Smotherman at +224 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Model Prediction: Cameron Smotherman wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Kai Asakura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Tale of the Tape

Kai Asakura

Red Corner

Cameron Smotherman

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+224

(31%)

1504

Elo

1452

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kai AsakuraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 24

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Aug 25

latest

Cameron SmothermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Hadley · Oct 24

vs Serhiy Sidey · May 25

vs Ricky Simon · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kai AsakuraMetricCameron Smotherman

2.27

Strikes / min

4.07

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

52%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.26Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.55

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kai Asakura(3 fights)Cameron Smotherman(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.2|Blue -52.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kai AsakuraTargetCameron Smotherman

By target zone

35% acc · 67%

Head

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 22%

Body

0% acc

50% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 89%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

Clinch

33% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kai Asakura rounds

even

Cameron Smotherman rounds

Round 1Kai Asakura edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 21

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

42%

Sig Str %

42%

9 / 21

Total Strikes

3 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cameron Smotherman	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Kai Asakura	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Kai Asakura

Odds

-280

Market-implied probability

Cameron Smotherman 30%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Kai Asakura$136

Cameron Smotherman (model pick · research)$324

30% market-implied · model 48% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked May 29, 2026, 3:48 PM UTC · never rewritten

Kai Asakura

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Cameron Smotherman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4