Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mairon Santos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1551

Elo1558

Kaan OflivsMairon SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Saturday, August 24, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mairon Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:30

Model Prediction: Mairon Santos wins(75.6%)

Actual result: Mairon Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mairon Santos at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kaan Ofli enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mairon Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mairon Santos is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kaan Ofli has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mairon Santos has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mairon Santos has 69pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Mairon Santos has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kaan Ofli

Red Corner

Mairon Santos

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1551

Elo

1558

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kaan OfliW3 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Naimov · Feb 25

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Oct 25

vs Yizha · Jan 26

SUBvs Javier Reyes · Jun 26

latest

Mairon SantosW3 streak

oldest →

vs Francis Marshall · Mar 25

vs Sodiq Yusuff · May 25

KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kaan OfliMetricMairon Santos

2.33

Strikes / min

3.33

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

54%

Strike defense

65%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

69%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.01Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kaan OfliMairon Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kaan Ofli(5 fights)Mairon Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.3|Blue +6.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kaan OfliTargetMairon Santos

By target zone

45% acc · 83%

Head

31% acc · 48%

50% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 29%

25% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

41% acc · 92%

Distance

44% acc · 87%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kaan Ofli rounds

even

Mairon Santos rounds

Round 1Mairon Santos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:29

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mairon Santos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 28

Sig Strikes

31 / 67

48.5%

Sig Str %

47%

19 / 35

Total Strikes

32 / 68

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mairon Santos	19 / 43	20 / 44	0 / 0
1	Kaan Ofli	7 / 20	14 / 27	0 / 0
2	Mairon Santos	12 / 24	12 / 24	0 / 0
2	Kaan Ofli	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0

Kaan Ofli

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Mairon Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4