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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kaan Ofli won · Submission R1

Elo1551

Elo1496

Kaan OflivsJavier ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Saturday, June 27, 2026Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Kaan Ofli won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:16

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Javier Reyes

Model Prediction: Javier Reyes wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Kaan Ofli wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Javier Reyes is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Kaan Ofli has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Javier Reyes has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Javier Reyes has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kaan Ofli

Red Corner

Javier Reyes

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1551

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

N/A

5'7"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kaan OfliW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mairon Santos · Aug 24

vs Muhammad Naimov · Feb 25

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Oct 25

vs Yizha · Jan 26

latest

Javier Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kaan OfliMetricJavier Reyes

2.33

Strikes / min

8.91

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

54%

Strike defense

47%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

2.00

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.01Δ 7.39 — meaningful gap+6.38

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kaan Ofli(5 fights)Javier Reyes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.6|Blue -55.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kaan OfliTargetJavier Reyes

By target zone

53% acc · 53%

Head

10% acc · 43%

80% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 29%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

62% acc · 76%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

Clinch

80% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kaan Ofli rounds

even

Javier Reyes rounds

Round 1Kaan Ofli edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 26

Sig Strikes

7 / 35

65%

Sig Str %

20%

42 / 53

Total Strikes

7 / 35

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Javier Reyes	7 / 35	7 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Kaan Ofli	17 / 26	42 / 53	0 / 0	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 48% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Kaan Ofli

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Javier Reyes

Stance—

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2